Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Dewar wins 42.6% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dewar 45.1% vs Larkin 54.1% (-10.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 62.5%
Defensive zone
Dewar 71.6%
Neutral zone
Dewar 59.7%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Dewar
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Dewar
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
2
Dewar
Larkin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
1
0
Dewar
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dewar
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (443)
53.6% (886)
-8.2%
Power Play
75.0% (8)
59.3% (317)
+15.7%
Penalty Kill
28.8% (52)
48.7% (152)
-19.9%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +19.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Dewar is 42.6% vs left-shot opponents (333).
Dewar shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Home / Away
Dewar
Larkin
Home
43.3% (238)
56.6% (700)
Away
44.9% (265)
52.1% (655)
By Period
Dewar
Larkin
P1
41.7%
55.4%
P2
46.1%
54.7%
P3
44.4%
52.7%
Final 5 min
44.4%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dewar
44.0%▬
43.5%
44.1%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2022 | 1 | 09:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 1 | 09:44 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 1 | 06:39 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |