Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Dewar wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dewar 45.5% vs Larkin 52.7% (-7.6%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 10-2 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Dewar 72.6%
Defensive zone
Dewar 92.0%
Neutral zone
Dewar 81.3%
Result
Connor Dewar favored at 79.8%
79.8%
20.2%
Dewar
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
10
(12 meetings)
2
10
Dewar
Larkin
Last 10: Dewar 2-8 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
7
Dewar
Larkin
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Dewar
Larkin
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Dewar
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dewar
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (1,008)
51.7% (9,019)
-6.3%
Power Play
60.9% (23)
58.5% (2,125)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
41.8% (194)
50.2% (1,122)
-8.4%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Dewar is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (822).
Dewar shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Home / Away
Dewar
Larkin
Home
43.4% (588)
54.0% (6,238)
Away
46.8% (637)
51.3% (6,028)
By Period
Dewar
Larkin
P1
43.9%
52.7%
P2
47.1%
53.1%
P3
44.3%
52.1%
OT
0.0%
58.4%
Final 5 min
48.0%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dewar
44.0%▬
43.5%
45.1%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2024 | 1 | 10:03 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 06:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 16:54 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 13:54 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 06:40 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 3 | 01:26 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 2 | 12:53 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 1 | 03:09 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 1 | 09:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 1 | 09:44 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 1 | 06:39 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 14, 2022 | 3 | 05:05 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |