Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Dewar wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dewar 46.0% vs Larkin 54.2% (-11.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dewar 52.3%
Defensive zone
Dewar 76.3%
Neutral zone
Dewar 67.6%
Result
Connor Dewar favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
Dewar
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Dewar
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
2
Dewar
Larkin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dewar
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (92)
52.6% (1,117)
-12.4%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
60.7% (305)
+39.3%
Penalty Kill
48.4% (31)
55.9% (177)
-7.5%
On power play, Dewar has a +39.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Dewar is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (97).
Dewar shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Home / Away
Dewar
Larkin
Home
41.0% (78)
54.7% (783)
Away
45.7% (46)
54.3% (816)
By Period
Dewar
Larkin
P1
38.9%
55.9%
P2
53.3%
56.1%
P3
34.9%
51.1%
Final 5 min
42.9%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dewar
44.0%▬
43.5%
42.7%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2024 | 1 | 10:03 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 06:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |