Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Dewar wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dewar 47.5% vs Larkin 55.0% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dewar 64.5%
Defensive zone
Dewar 77.9%
Neutral zone
Dewar 74.7%
Result
Connor Dewar favored at 72.9%
72.9%
27.1%
Dewar
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Dewar
Larkin
Last 6: Dewar 1-5 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
2
Dewar
Larkin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
2
Dewar
Larkin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Dewar
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dewar
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (331)
55.9% (943)
-9.7%
Power Play
45.5% (11)
57.4% (244)
-11.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (68)
46.2% (106)
+3.8%
On power play, Larkin has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Dewar is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (285).
Dewar shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Home / Away
Dewar
Larkin
Home
43.9% (189)
56.0% (654)
Away
49.3% (221)
54.8% (639)
By Period
Dewar
Larkin
P1
50.4%
54.4%
P2
50.0%
55.9%
P3
40.8%
55.2%
Final 5 min
52.0%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dewar
44.0%▬
43.5%
46.8%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 16:54 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 13:54 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 06:40 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 3 | 01:26 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 2 | 12:53 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 1 | 03:09 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |