Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Tkachuk wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 48.1% vs McDavid 49.6% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 69.8%
Defensive zone
McDavid 82.2%
Neutral zone
McDavid 52.6%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 50.4%
50.4%
49.6%
Tkachuk
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Tkachuk
McDavid
Last 5: Tkachuk 4-1 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
2
0
Tkachuk
McDavid
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
0
1
Tkachuk
McDavid
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
2
0
Tkachuk
McDavid
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (99)
49.1% (621)
-0.6%
Power Play
46.7% (150)
78.6% (14)
-31.9%
On power play, McDavid has a +31.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Tkachuk is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (138).
Tkachuk shoots left. McDavid is 50.2% vs left-shot opponents (456).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
McDavid
Home
50.7% (136)
56.1% (330)
Away
43.4% (113)
42.5% (308)
By Period
Tkachuk
McDavid
P1
45.9%
49.2%
P2
54.4%
47.4%
P3
42.2%
53.0%
Final 5 min
41.8%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
47.4%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2021 | 1 | 00:10 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 10, 2021 | 3 | 07:15 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 10, 2021 | 3 | 03:59 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 10, 2021 | 2 | 09:34 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 9, 2021 | 2 | 03:53 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |