Connor McDavid vs Frederick Gaudreau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Gaudreau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Gaudreau 43.9% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 94.4%
Defensive zone
Gaudreau 55.6%
Neutral zone
McDavid 77.5%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 81.0%
81.0%
19.0%
McDavid
Gaudreau
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
McDavid
Gaudreau
Last 5: McDavid 5-0 Gaudreau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
0
McDavid
Gaudreau
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Gaudreau
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Gaudreau
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Gaudreau
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
45.0% (389)
+2.5%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
31.8% (22)
+16.8%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
37.6% (125)
+8.9%
On power play, McDavid has a +16.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaudreau shoots right. McDavid is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (211).
McDavid shoots left. Gaudreau is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (427).
Home / Away
McDavid
Gaudreau
Home
50.2% (400)
42.6% (277)
Away
44.7% (365)
42.9% (259)
By Period
McDavid
Gaudreau
P1
47.5%
43.8%
P2
48.6%
44.8%
P3
46.7%
39.2%
Final 5 min
51.3%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Gaudreau
34.0%▼
44.5%
42.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 06:11 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 19:02 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 16:07 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 11:20 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 18:25 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |