Connor McDavid vs Frederick Gaudreau
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.7% vs 48.6%). Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Gaudreau 48.6% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 13-1 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 66.9%
Defensive zone
Gaudreau 71.5%
Neutral zone
Gaudreau 52.5%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
McDavid
Gaudreau
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
1
(14 meetings)
13
1
McDavid
Gaudreau
Last 10: McDavid 9-1 Gaudreau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
7
0
McDavid
Gaudreau
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Gaudreau
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
5
0
McDavid
Gaudreau
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Gaudreau
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
48.7% (3,745)
-1.0%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
53.9% (219)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
46.6% (789)
-3.2%
On penalty kill, Gaudreau has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaudreau shoots right. McDavid is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,105).
McDavid shoots left. Gaudreau is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (3,473).
Home / Away
McDavid
Gaudreau
Home
49.3% (4,570)
49.2% (2,437)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
47.8% (2,316)
By Period
McDavid
Gaudreau
P1
46.5%
49.7%
P2
48.7%
47.3%
P3
48.3%
49.1%
OT
40.9%
36.7%
Final 5 min
50.1%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Gaudreau
34.0%▼
44.5%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 06:11 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 19:02 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 16:07 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 11:20 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 18:25 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 1 | 16:11 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 19:16 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 2 | 14:25 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 3 | 02:31 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Feb 20, 2022 | 2 | 01:51 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 20, 2022 | 1 | 18:02 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 20, 2022 | 1 | 17:50 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 20, 2022 | 1 | 13:38 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 20, 2022 | 1 | 05:21 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |