Scouting Report
Jamie Benn holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Benn shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Benn 55.0% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Benn 51.3%
Defensive zone
McDavid 52.7%
Neutral zone
McDavid 52.1%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 52.4%
52.4%
47.6%
McDavid
Benn
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
McDavid
Benn
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Benn
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Benn
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Benn
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
55.9% (365)
-8.2%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
56.8% (132)
-4.9%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
53.1% (32)
-30.9%
On penalty kill, Benn has a +30.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Benn shoots left. McDavid is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (494).
McDavid shoots left. Benn is 58.7% vs left-shot opponents (329).
Home / Away
McDavid
Benn
Home
47.3% (387)
57.3% (267)
Away
48.1% (389)
54.6% (262)
By Period
McDavid
Benn
P1
47.6%
54.3%
P2
50.0%
55.7%
P3
45.0%
58.1%
Final 5 min
46.8%
59.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Benn
48.0%▼
52.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 04:30 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 18:31 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 03:52 | Neutral | Jamie Benn |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 07:38 | Defensive | Jamie Benn |