Scouting Report
Jamie Benn holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Benn on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Benn 52.9% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Benn leads 21-15 in 36 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 72.1%
Defensive zone
McDavid 68.7%
Neutral zone
McDavid 67.5%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 68.8%
68.8%
31.2%
McDavid
Benn
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
21
(36 meetings)
15
21
McDavid
Benn
Last 10: McDavid 3-7 Benn
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Benn
1
6
McDavid
Benn
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
6
6
McDavid
Benn
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Benn
8
9
McDavid
Benn
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Benn
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
53.5% (6,450)
-5.8%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
52.5% (2,054)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
49.3% (515)
-5.9%
On penalty kill, Benn has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Benn shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,903).
McDavid shoots left. Benn is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,269).
Home / Away
McDavid
Benn
Home
49.3% (4,570)
54.9% (4,547)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
51.0% (4,488)
By Period
McDavid
Benn
P1
46.5%
51.9%
P2
48.7%
52.6%
P3
48.3%
54.0%
OT
40.9%
62.4%
Final 5 min
50.1%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Benn
48.0%▼
52.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 04:30 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 18:31 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 03:52 | Neutral | Jamie Benn |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 07:38 | Defensive | Jamie Benn |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 1 | 00:24 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 3 | 03:50 | Defensive | Jamie Benn |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 1 | 01:07 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 3 | 14:16 | Defensive | Jamie Benn |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 3 | 06:07 | Neutral | Jamie Benn |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 3 | 00:42 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 2 | 16:36 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 2 | 03:32 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2 | 19:23 | Defensive | Jamie Benn |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 2 | 17:23 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 1 | 02:31 | Defensive | Jamie Benn |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 1 | 02:23 | Neutral | Jamie Benn |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 3 | 09:37 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 3 | 06:57 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 3 | 03:39 | Neutral | Jamie Benn |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 2 | 09:17 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |