Connor McDavid vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2022-23 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McDavid wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Pageau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Pageau 56.7% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 55.5%
Defensive zone
Pageau 69.5%
Neutral zone
Pageau 64.5%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 60.3%
39.7%
60.3%
McDavid
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
McDavid
Pageau
Last 10: McDavid 5-5 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
1
McDavid
Pageau
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
2
3
McDavid
Pageau
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
McDavid
Pageau
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
58.8% (889)
-7.3%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
58.2% (182)
+5.7%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
48.6% (185)
+2.6%
On even strength, Pageau has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. McDavid is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (357).
McDavid shoots left. Pageau is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (880).
Home / Away
McDavid
Pageau
Home
50.7% (513)
59.0% (595)
Away
53.2% (498)
55.7% (661)
By Period
McDavid
Pageau
P1
52.3%
58.9%
P2
51.6%
57.9%
P3
51.7%
55.6%
OT
100.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
56.5%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
57.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 17:01 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 00:24 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 08:33 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 2 | 14:49 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 2 | 11:54 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 2 | 07:27 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 16:58 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 13:46 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 03:27 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 02:31 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |