Connor McDavid vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Pageau 58.7% (-11.9%)
H2H factor
Pageau leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 73.8%
Defensive zone
McDavid 70.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 76.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 74.4%
74.4%
25.6%
McDavid
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
10
(16 meetings)
6
10
McDavid
Pageau
Last 10: McDavid 3-7 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
1
McDavid
Pageau
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
0
4
McDavid
Pageau
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
3
5
McDavid
Pageau
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
59.6% (711)
-11.9%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
64.0% (114)
-12.1%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
56.4% (163)
-34.2%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +34.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. McDavid is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (282).
McDavid shoots left. Pageau is 61.2% vs left-shot opponents (763).
Home / Away
McDavid
Pageau
Home
47.3% (387)
59.3% (506)
Away
48.1% (389)
60.0% (482)
By Period
McDavid
Pageau
P1
47.6%
56.8%
P2
50.0%
64.4%
P3
45.0%
56.9%
Final 5 min
46.8%
61.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 09:53 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 11:01 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 09:08 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 08:46 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 14:20 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 14:18 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 11:32 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 07:43 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 03:16 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 3 | 00:29 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 3 | 00:15 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 1 | 00:08 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |