Connor McDavid vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs Pageau 55.0% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 54.8%
Defensive zone
Pageau 87.4%
Neutral zone
Pageau 79.2%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 68.9%
31.1%
68.9%
McDavid
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
McDavid
Pageau
Last 10: McDavid 7-3 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
0
McDavid
Pageau
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
3
McDavid
Pageau
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Pageau
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
57.1% (905)
-5.5%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
55.2% (116)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
48.0% (204)
-11.6%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. McDavid is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (249).
McDavid shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (880).
Home / Away
McDavid
Pageau
Home
51.8% (415)
57.0% (618)
Away
50.4% (450)
53.9% (607)
By Period
McDavid
Pageau
P1
47.5%
54.4%
P2
51.6%
61.0%
P3
55.5%
51.0%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2023 | 3 | 04:31 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 1 | 18:04 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 1 | 09:57 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 3 | 16:19 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 3 | 16:08 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 2 | 14:38 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 2 | 09:57 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 2 | 01:14 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 1 | 08:46 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 1 | 06:20 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |