Connor McDavid vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +12.1% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Pageau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Pageau 58.8% (-12.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 68.3%
Defensive zone
Pageau 94.1%
Neutral zone
Pageau 90.8%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 85.0%
15.0%
85.0%
McDavid
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
McDavid
Pageau
Last 6: McDavid 5-1 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Pageau
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Pageau
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Pageau
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
59.1% (687)
-11.6%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
69.4% (36)
-20.8%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
60.1% (213)
-13.6%
On power play, Pageau has a +20.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. McDavid is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (211).
McDavid shoots left. Pageau is 60.5% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
McDavid
Pageau
Home
50.2% (400)
57.8% (377)
Away
44.7% (365)
61.0% (559)
By Period
McDavid
Pageau
P1
47.5%
54.1%
P2
48.6%
62.1%
P3
46.7%
61.8%
OT
33.3%
75.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
63.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 03:04 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 04:27 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 17:15 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 09:04 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 07:51 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 04:45 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |