Connor McDavid vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 31 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Pageau 54.8% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Pageau leads 63-39 in 102 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 91.1%
Defensive zone
McDavid 88.3%
Neutral zone
McDavid 91.1%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 90.3%
90.3%
9.7%
McDavid
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
39
-
63
(102 meetings)
39
63
McDavid
Pageau
Last 10: McDavid 6-4 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
19
12
McDavid
Pageau
31 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
7
24
McDavid
Pageau
31 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
13
27
McDavid
Pageau
40 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
55.7% (9,486)
-8.0%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
57.0% (1,002)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
49.6% (2,069)
-6.2%
On even strength, Pageau has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. McDavid is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,105).
McDavid shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,837).
Home / Away
McDavid
Pageau
Home
49.3% (4,570)
56.3% (6,214)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
53.4% (6,343)
By Period
McDavid
Pageau
P1
46.5%
54.6%
P2
48.7%
56.3%
P3
48.3%
53.5%
OT
40.9%
54.4%
Final 5 min
50.1%
53.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 03:04 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 04:27 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 17:15 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 09:04 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 07:51 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 04:45 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 09:53 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 11:01 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 09:08 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 08:46 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 14:20 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 14:18 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 11:32 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 07:43 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 03:16 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 3 | 00:29 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 3 | 00:15 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |