Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 53.4% vs Barzal 46.9% (+7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 65.6%
Defensive zone
Barzal 66.3%
Neutral zone
Barzal 65.0%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 65.4%
34.6%
65.4%
McDavid
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
McDavid
Barzal
Last 6: McDavid 2-4 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Barzal
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
4
McDavid
Barzal
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (1,002)
46.6% (483)
+7.7%
Power Play
44.8% (29)
40.9% (22)
+3.9%
On even strength, McDavid has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. McDavid is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (367).
McDavid shoots left. Barzal is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (385).
Home / Away
McDavid
Barzal
Home
53.6% (507)
49.6% (242)
Away
53.8% (539)
43.3% (263)
By Period
McDavid
Barzal
P1
52.6%
42.4%
P2
54.1%
49.5%
P3
54.9%
47.7%
OT
44.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
52.2%
40.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2022 | 3 | 14:01 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 11, 2022 | 3 | 01:12 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 11, 2022 | 2 | 11:13 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 11, 2022 | 2 | 01:15 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 11, 2022 | 1 | 01:16 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 1 | 03:57 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |