Connor McDavid vs Mathew Barzal
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Barzal 42.2% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 10-7 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 74.9%
Defensive zone
McDavid 77.8%
Neutral zone
McDavid 77.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 76.8%
76.8%
23.2%
McDavid
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
7
(17 meetings)
10
7
McDavid
Barzal
Last 10: McDavid 6-4 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
2
McDavid
Barzal
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
5
0
McDavid
Barzal
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
5
McDavid
Barzal
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
41.9% (3,565)
+5.8%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
43.4% (205)
+8.6%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
42.3% (26)
+1.1%
On power play, McDavid has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. McDavid is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,105).
McDavid shoots left. Barzal is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,699).
Home / Away
McDavid
Barzal
Home
49.3% (4,570)
43.1% (1,895)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
40.9% (1,901)
By Period
McDavid
Barzal
P1
46.5%
40.7%
P2
48.7%
44.4%
P3
48.3%
41.0%
OT
40.9%
27.6%
Final 5 min
50.1%
39.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
42.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 12:31 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 12:00 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 16:35 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 07:59 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 15:44 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 2 | 01:09 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 2 | 15:35 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 11, 2022 | 3 | 14:01 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 11, 2022 | 3 | 01:12 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 11, 2022 | 2 | 11:13 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 11, 2022 | 2 | 01:15 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 11, 2022 | 1 | 01:16 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 1 | 03:57 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 3 | 11:12 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 3 | 08:09 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 2 | 14:17 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |