Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Barzal 41.4% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 50.4%
Defensive zone
McDavid 50.2%
Neutral zone
Barzal 50.4%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 50.3%
49.7%
50.3%
McDavid
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
McDavid
Barzal
Last 6: McDavid 3-3 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
McDavid
Barzal
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Barzal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
1
McDavid
Barzal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
40.4% (463)
+7.1%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
34.2% (38)
+14.4%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
28.6% (7)
+17.9%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +17.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. McDavid is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (211).
McDavid shoots left. Barzal is 38.9% vs left-shot opponents (393).
Home / Away
McDavid
Barzal
Home
50.2% (400)
38.1% (244)
Away
44.7% (365)
41.3% (264)
By Period
McDavid
Barzal
P1
47.5%
46.6%
P2
48.6%
35.7%
P3
46.7%
37.7%
OT
33.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
39.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 12:31 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 12:00 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 16:35 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 07:59 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 15:44 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |