Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.7% vs 54.1%). McDavid wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 53.4% vs Duchene 52.8% (-0.4%)
Offensive zone
Duchene 67.8%
Defensive zone
McDavid 77.3%
Neutral zone
McDavid 57.6%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 55.7%
55.7%
44.3%
McDavid
Duchene
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (1,002)
46.9% (162)
+7.4%
Power Play
44.8% (29)
73.2% (56)
-28.4%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (15)
100.0% (2)
-66.7%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +66.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. McDavid is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (679).
McDavid shoots left. Duchene is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (115).
Home / Away
McDavid
Duchene
Home
53.6% (507)
58.4% (125)
Away
53.8% (539)
48.4% (95)
By Period
McDavid
Duchene
P1
52.6%
56.9%
P2
54.1%
52.5%
P3
54.9%
51.9%
OT
44.4%
80.0%
Final 5 min
52.2%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.1%