Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Duchene 51.6% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 50.6%
Defensive zone
McDavid 53.0%
Neutral zone
McDavid 56.1%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 55.1%
55.1%
44.9%
McDavid
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
McDavid
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
McDavid
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
51.2% (324)
-3.7%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
60.4% (53)
-11.8%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
16.7% (6)
+29.8%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +29.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Home / Away
McDavid
Duchene
Home
50.2% (400)
51.6% (182)
Away
44.7% (365)
52.2% (201)
By Period
McDavid
Duchene
P1
47.5%
49.6%
P2
48.6%
56.2%
P3
46.7%
48.6%
OT
33.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 11:59 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 18:26 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 01:23 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |