Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs Duchene 55.6% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 59.2%
Defensive zone
McDavid 55.4%
Neutral zone
Duchene 53.4%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 53.4%
46.6%
53.4%
McDavid
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
McDavid
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
McDavid
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
56.5% (566)
-4.9%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
61.3% (62)
-11.3%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
22.2% (9)
+14.2%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. McDavid is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (616).
McDavid shoots left. Duchene is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Home / Away
McDavid
Duchene
Home
51.8% (415)
56.6% (318)
Away
50.4% (450)
56.4% (319)
By Period
McDavid
Duchene
P1
47.5%
57.2%
P2
51.6%
55.1%
P3
55.5%
55.6%
OT
50.0%
81.3%
Final 5 min
50.5%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 19:02 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |