Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Duchene 52.1% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 64.0%
Defensive zone
McDavid 66.0%
Neutral zone
McDavid 62.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 64.8%
64.8%
35.2%
McDavid
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
McDavid
Duchene
Last 5: McDavid 1-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
McDavid
Duchene
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
3
McDavid
Duchene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
53.0% (723)
-5.3%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
49.5% (101)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
43.8% (16)
-21.6%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +21.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. McDavid is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (494).
McDavid shoots left. Duchene is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Home / Away
McDavid
Duchene
Home
47.3% (387)
54.9% (408)
Away
48.1% (389)
50.0% (432)
By Period
McDavid
Duchene
P1
47.6%
52.5%
P2
50.0%
51.7%
P3
45.0%
53.6%
Final 5 min
46.8%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 15:13 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 12:32 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 10:03 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 04:43 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 05:48 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |