Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (91% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Duchene 54.1% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 20-9 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 78.8%
Defensive zone
McDavid 74.9%
Neutral zone
McDavid 84.3%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 79.3%
79.3%
20.7%
McDavid
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
20
(29 meetings)
9
20
McDavid
Duchene
Last 10: McDavid 2-8 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
10
McDavid
Duchene
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
6
McDavid
Duchene
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
5
4
McDavid
Duchene
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
53.9% (10,396)
-6.2%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
56.9% (1,665)
-4.9%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
49.1% (468)
-5.7%
On even strength, Duchene has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,903).
McDavid shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Home / Away
McDavid
Duchene
Home
49.3% (4,570)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
McDavid
Duchene
P1
46.5%
54.5%
P2
48.7%
54.5%
P3
48.3%
53.4%
OT
40.9%
56.3%
Final 5 min
50.1%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 11:59 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 18:26 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 01:23 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 15:13 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 12:32 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 10:03 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 04:43 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 05:48 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 19:02 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 2, 2020 | 1 | 05:55 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 2 | 07:55 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 3 | 05:34 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 2 | 04:55 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 1 | 10:42 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 1 | 10:36 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 1 | 00:35 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 3 | 11:20 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 2 | 00:42 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 1 | 10:21 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 22, 2018 | 3 | 15:37 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |