Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Suter on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Suter 46.3% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Suter leads 10-8 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 55.5%
Defensive zone
Suter 59.6%
Neutral zone
Suter 55.9%
Result
Pius Suter favored at 54.4%
45.6%
54.4%
McDavid
Suter
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
10
(18 meetings)
8
10
McDavid
Suter
Last 10: McDavid 3-7 Suter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
McDavid
Suter
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Suter
1
4
McDavid
Suter
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
5
4
McDavid
Suter
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Suter
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
46.2% (3,208)
+1.5%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
52.9% (278)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
40.3% (303)
+3.1%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Suter shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,903).
McDavid shoots left. Suter is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,386).
Home / Away
McDavid
Suter
Home
49.3% (4,570)
46.8% (1,804)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
45.7% (1,985)
By Period
McDavid
Suter
P1
46.5%
46.6%
P2
48.7%
46.0%
P3
48.3%
46.1%
OT
40.9%
44.4%
Final 5 min
50.1%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Suter
48.0%▬
47.5%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3 | 13:44 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3 | 04:14 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 12:11 | Offensive | Pius Suter |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 2 | 19:31 | Defensive | Pius Suter |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 1 | 11:53 | Defensive | Pius Suter |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 01:10 | Offensive | Pius Suter |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 00:24 | Neutral | Pius Suter |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 3 | 07:13 | Defensive | Pius Suter |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 2 | 09:51 | Defensive | Pius Suter |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 1 | 12:34 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 3 | 02:18 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pius Suter |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 2 | 16:12 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 15:31 | Neutral | Pius Suter |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 06:52 | Neutral | Pius Suter |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 2 | 11:59 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 1 | 19:46 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |