Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Thomas 51.7% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 61.7%
Defensive zone
Thomas 54.8%
Neutral zone
Thomas 53.6%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 51.4%
48.6%
51.4%
McDavid
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
McDavid
Thomas
Last 6: McDavid 3-3 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Thomas
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Thomas
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
3
McDavid
Thomas
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
50.1% (615)
-2.6%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
62.2% (98)
-13.6%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
52.6% (114)
-6.1%
On power play, Thomas has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. McDavid is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (211).
McDavid shoots left. Thomas is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Home / Away
McDavid
Thomas
Home
50.2% (400)
51.9% (374)
Away
44.7% (365)
51.9% (453)
By Period
McDavid
Thomas
P1
47.5%
49.2%
P2
48.6%
55.3%
P3
46.7%
50.6%
OT
33.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
51.3%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3 | 18:37 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3 | 16:57 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3 | 07:33 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 2 | 17:41 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 1 | 13:24 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |