Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 54.5% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.6% vs Thomas 52.0% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 58.8%
Defensive zone
Thomas 54.4%
Neutral zone
Thomas 53.9%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 52.0%
48.0%
52.0%
McDavid
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
McDavid
Thomas
Last 6: McDavid 3-3 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Thomas
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Thomas
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
3
McDavid
Thomas
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (540)
50.1% (539)
-3.8%
Power Play
52.4% (63)
64.0% (86)
-11.6%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (38)
54.0% (100)
-1.4%
On power play, Thomas has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. McDavid is 54.5% vs right-shot opponents (187).
McDavid shoots left. Thomas is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (482).
Home / Away
McDavid
Thomas
Home
49.8% (325)
52.0% (373)
Away
44.6% (316)
52.6% (352)
By Period
McDavid
Thomas
P1
46.2%
50.0%
P2
48.6%
55.3%
P3
47.1%
50.9%
OT
33.3%
58.3%
Final 5 min
52.3%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
54.0%▲
45.5%
47.3%
Thomas
36.0%▼
50.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3 | 18:37 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3 | 16:57 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3 | 07:33 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 2 | 17:41 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 1 | 13:24 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |