Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs Thomas 52.9% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 51.6%
Defensive zone
Thomas 62.8%
Neutral zone
Thomas 62.9%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 58.1%
41.9%
58.1%
McDavid
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
6
(15 meetings)
9
6
McDavid
Thomas
Last 10: McDavid 7-3 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
1
McDavid
Thomas
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
1
2
McDavid
Thomas
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
3
McDavid
Thomas
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
53.2% (1,166)
-1.6%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
56.9% (262)
-6.9%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
48.4% (221)
-12.0%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. McDavid is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (249).
McDavid shoots left. Thomas is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,162).
Home / Away
McDavid
Thomas
Home
51.8% (415)
51.6% (830)
Away
50.4% (450)
54.7% (819)
By Period
McDavid
Thomas
P1
47.5%
52.7%
P2
51.6%
55.6%
P3
55.5%
50.6%
OT
50.0%
61.5%
Final 5 min
50.5%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 3 | 16:44 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 2 | 11:17 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 00:31 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 28, 2024 | 3 | 13:34 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 28, 2024 | 1 | 11:40 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 3 | 11:34 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 3 | 03:24 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 3 | 00:37 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 18:39 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 12:57 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 1 | 09:39 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 1 | 07:22 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |