Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 53.4% vs Thomas 49.9% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 72.3%
Defensive zone
McDavid 76.3%
Neutral zone
McDavid 69.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 72.5%
72.5%
27.5%
McDavid
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
McDavid
Thomas
Last 8: McDavid 6-2 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
1
McDavid
Thomas
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Thomas
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Thomas
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (1,002)
49.0% (910)
+5.3%
Power Play
44.8% (29)
53.5% (142)
-8.7%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (15)
53.3% (75)
-20.0%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. McDavid is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (367).
McDavid shoots left. Thomas is 48.2% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
McDavid
Thomas
Home
53.6% (507)
47.3% (514)
Away
53.8% (539)
52.0% (613)
By Period
McDavid
Thomas
P1
52.6%
50.4%
P2
54.1%
47.5%
P3
54.9%
51.4%
OT
44.4%
61.5%
Final 5 min
52.2%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2022 | 3 | 08:36 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 3 | 05:48 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 3 | 01:14 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 2 | 10:48 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 1 | 14:18 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 1 | 07:43 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 1 | 04:17 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 1 | 00:32 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |