Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Thomas 54.5% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Thomas leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 65.8%
Defensive zone
McDavid 65.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 64.7%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 65.3%
65.3%
34.7%
McDavid
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
9
(15 meetings)
6
9
McDavid
Thomas
Last 8: McDavid 4-4 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
2
McDavid
Thomas
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
4
McDavid
Thomas
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
McDavid
Thomas
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
55.3% (990)
-7.6%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
54.2% (190)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
52.5% (158)
-30.3%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +30.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. McDavid is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (282).
McDavid shoots left. Thomas is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (994).
Home / Away
McDavid
Thomas
Home
47.3% (387)
55.1% (690)
Away
48.1% (389)
54.5% (648)
By Period
McDavid
Thomas
P1
47.6%
55.5%
P2
50.0%
56.4%
P3
45.0%
51.5%
Final 5 min
46.8%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 08:58 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 08:48 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 06:17 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 13:21 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 07:14 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |