Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McDavid wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Thomas 52.7% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thomas 53.8%
Defensive zone
McDavid 55.8%
Neutral zone
Thomas 54.0%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
McDavid
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
McDavid
Thomas
Last 7: McDavid 4-3 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
1
3
McDavid
Thomas
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Thomas
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Thomas
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
53.6% (924)
-2.1%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
55.2% (181)
+8.7%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
44.0% (116)
+7.2%
On power play, McDavid has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. McDavid is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (357).
McDavid shoots left. Thomas is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (869).
Home / Away
McDavid
Thomas
Home
50.7% (513)
53.6% (606)
Away
53.2% (498)
52.2% (615)
By Period
McDavid
Thomas
P1
52.3%
48.2%
P2
51.6%
55.3%
P3
51.7%
55.2%
OT
100.0%
47.1%
Final 5 min
56.5%
55.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 11:25 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 19:09 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 05:17 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 1 | 17:56 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 18:28 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 04:34 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 11:17 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |