Connor McDavid vs Robert Thomas
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 19 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Thomas 51.6% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 30-24 in 54 meetings
Offensive zone
Thomas 54.3%
Defensive zone
Thomas 57.6%
Neutral zone
Thomas 61.9%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 58.1%
41.9%
58.1%
McDavid
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
30
-
24
(54 meetings)
30
24
McDavid
Thomas
Last 10: McDavid 5-5 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
12
7
McDavid
Thomas
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
8
6
McDavid
Thomas
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
10
11
McDavid
Thomas
21 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
51.1% (5,350)
-3.4%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
55.8% (921)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
49.9% (691)
-6.5%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. McDavid is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,105).
McDavid shoots left. Thomas is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (4,919).
Home / Away
McDavid
Thomas
Home
49.3% (4,570)
50.9% (3,458)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
52.3% (3,504)
By Period
McDavid
Thomas
P1
46.5%
50.6%
P2
48.7%
52.9%
P3
48.3%
50.8%
OT
40.9%
59.2%
Final 5 min
50.1%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3 | 18:37 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3 | 16:57 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3 | 07:33 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 2 | 17:41 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 1 | 13:24 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 08:58 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 08:48 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 06:17 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 13:21 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 07:14 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 1, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 3 | 16:44 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 2 | 11:17 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 00:31 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 28, 2024 | 3 | 13:34 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 28, 2024 | 1 | 11:40 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |