Connor McDavid vs Robert Thomas
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 19 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.7% vs Thomas 51.6% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 30-24 in 54 meetings
Offensive zone
Thomas 53.2%
Defensive zone
Thomas 55.6%
Neutral zone
Thomas 59.2%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 56.1%
43.9%
56.1%
McDavid
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
30
-
24
(54 meetings)
30
24
McDavid
Thomas
Last 10: McDavid 5-5 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
12
7
McDavid
Thomas
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
8
6
McDavid
Thomas
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
10
11
McDavid
Thomas
21 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (8,248)
51.1% (5,274)
-3.5%
Power Play
52.8% (362)
55.9% (909)
-3.1%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (274)
50.1% (677)
-5.9%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. McDavid is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,081).
McDavid shoots left. Thomas is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (4,828).
Home / Away
McDavid
Thomas
Home
49.3% (4,495)
50.9% (3,457)
Away
46.1% (4,389)
52.3% (3,403)
By Period
McDavid
Thomas
P1
46.4%
50.7%
P2
48.7%
52.9%
P3
48.3%
50.8%
OT
40.9%
59.4%
Final 5 min
50.1%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
54.0%▲
45.5%
47.7%
Thomas
36.0%▼
50.5%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3 | 18:37 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3 | 16:57 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3 | 07:33 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 2 | 17:41 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 1 | 13:24 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 08:58 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 08:48 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 06:17 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 13:21 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 07:14 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 1, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 3 | 16:44 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 2 | 11:17 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 00:31 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 28, 2024 | 3 | 13:34 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 28, 2024 | 1 | 11:40 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |