Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 53.4% vs Carrick 49.5% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 74.4%
Defensive zone
Carrick 53.7%
Neutral zone
McDavid 55.1%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 57.2%
57.2%
42.8%
McDavid
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
McDavid
Carrick
Last 5: McDavid 3-2 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
McDavid
Carrick
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Carrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (1,002)
48.9% (352)
+5.4%
Power Play
44.8% (29)
81.3% (16)
-36.5%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (15)
42.2% (45)
-8.9%
On power play, Carrick has a +36.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. McDavid is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (367).
McDavid shoots left. Carrick is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (300).
Home / Away
McDavid
Carrick
Home
53.6% (507)
46.9% (192)
Away
53.8% (539)
51.6% (221)
By Period
McDavid
Carrick
P1
52.6%
48.1%
P2
54.1%
50.0%
P3
54.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.2%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2022 | 3 | 14:01 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 1 | 11:19 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 2 | 09:11 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 1 | 14:14 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 1 | 04:39 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |