Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Carrick 53.7% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 71.4%
Defensive zone
Carrick 85.3%
Neutral zone
Carrick 71.8%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 85.3%
14.7%
85.3%
McDavid
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
McDavid
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Carrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
53.8% (654)
-6.1%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
0.0% (2)
+51.9%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
63.9% (36)
-41.7%
On power play, McDavid has a +51.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. McDavid is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (282).
McDavid shoots left. Carrick is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (503).
Home / Away
McDavid
Carrick
Home
47.3% (387)
50.0% (328)
Away
48.1% (389)
58.0% (364)
By Period
McDavid
Carrick
P1
47.6%
56.7%
P2
50.0%
51.1%
P3
45.0%
54.8%
Final 5 min
46.8%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2025 | 3 | 08:24 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 3 | 08:19 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 12:35 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |