Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Carrick 53.8% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 78.8%
Defensive zone
Carrick 64.0%
Neutral zone
McDavid 55.4%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 50.3%
50.3%
49.7%
McDavid
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
McDavid
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Carrick
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
McDavid
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
55.1% (439)
-7.6%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
66.7% (3)
-18.1%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
49.1% (53)
-2.6%
On power play, Carrick has a +18.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. McDavid is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (211).
McDavid shoots left. Carrick is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (355).
Home / Away
McDavid
Carrick
Home
50.2% (400)
58.2% (225)
Away
44.7% (365)
51.5% (270)
By Period
McDavid
Carrick
P1
47.5%
56.7%
P2
48.6%
52.8%
P3
46.7%
54.4%
Final 5 min
51.3%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 13:41 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 05:25 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 13:37 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |