Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Carrick 52.1% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 13-10 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 72.8%
Defensive zone
Carrick 88.7%
Neutral zone
Carrick 67.4%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 66.2%
33.8%
66.2%
McDavid
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
10
(23 meetings)
13
10
McDavid
Carrick
Last 10: McDavid 4-6 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
2
McDavid
Carrick
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
5
5
McDavid
Carrick
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
3
McDavid
Carrick
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
52.1% (2,513)
-4.4%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
61.3% (75)
-9.3%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
50.7% (430)
-7.3%
On power play, Carrick has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. McDavid is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,105).
McDavid shoots left. Carrick is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,179).
Home / Away
McDavid
Carrick
Home
49.3% (4,570)
51.2% (1,441)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
McDavid
Carrick
P1
46.5%
51.8%
P2
48.7%
52.2%
P3
48.3%
52.4%
Final 5 min
50.1%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 13:41 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 05:25 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 13:37 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 3 | 08:24 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 3 | 08:19 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 12:35 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 9, 2024 | 3 | 18:50 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 9, 2024 | 3 | 04:58 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 9, 2024 | 2 | 14:54 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 9, 2024 | 2 | 07:16 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 9, 2024 | 2 | 06:58 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 9, 2024 | 1 | 07:17 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 1 | 12:37 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 3 | 11:45 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 2 | 10:01 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 3 | 14:01 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 1 | 11:19 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 2 | 09:11 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 1 | 14:14 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |