Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Carrick 49.5% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 83.2%
Defensive zone
Carrick 54.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 56.1%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 65.1%
65.1%
34.9%
McDavid
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
McDavid
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
49.2% (307)
+2.3%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
66.7% (6)
-2.8%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
48.2% (56)
+3.0%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +3.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. McDavid is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (357).
McDavid shoots left. Carrick is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (288).
Home / Away
McDavid
Carrick
Home
50.7% (513)
50.3% (175)
Away
53.2% (498)
48.5% (194)
By Period
McDavid
Carrick
P1
52.3%
41.0%
P2
51.6%
51.2%
P3
51.7%
55.3%
Final 5 min
56.5%
37.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2023 | 3 | 11:45 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 2 | 10:01 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |