Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs Carrick 53.0% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 84.0%
Defensive zone
Carrick 56.9%
Neutral zone
McDavid 64.0%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 66.6%
66.6%
33.4%
McDavid
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
McDavid
Carrick
Last 7: McDavid 2-5 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Carrick
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
McDavid
Carrick
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
McDavid
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
53.9% (521)
-2.3%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
57.1% (35)
-7.1%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
51.5% (229)
-15.1%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. McDavid is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (249).
McDavid shoots left. Carrick is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
McDavid
Carrick
Home
51.8% (415)
52.7% (408)
Away
50.4% (450)
54.1% (377)
By Period
McDavid
Carrick
P1
47.5%
51.4%
P2
51.6%
56.6%
P3
55.5%
52.1%
Final 5 min
50.5%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2024 | 3 | 18:50 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 9, 2024 | 3 | 04:58 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 9, 2024 | 2 | 14:54 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 9, 2024 | 2 | 07:16 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 9, 2024 | 2 | 06:58 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 9, 2024 | 1 | 07:17 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 1 | 12:37 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |