Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on neutral-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings). McDavid wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 42.5% vs Monahan 51.0% (-9.8%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 15-6 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 92.8%
Defensive zone
McDavid 83.2%
Neutral zone
McDavid 88.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 89.3%
89.3%
10.7%
McDavid
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
15
(21 meetings)
6
15
McDavid
Monahan
Last 10: McDavid 3-7 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
3
4
McDavid
Monahan
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
2
McDavid
Monahan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
9
McDavid
Monahan
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (578)
52.1% (1,301)
-11.4%
Power Play
56.3% (16)
50.3% (342)
+6.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
38.5% (96)
+11.5%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. McDavid is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (363).
McDavid shoots left. Monahan is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,110).
Home / Away
McDavid
Monahan
Home
42.7% (323)
52.7% (875)
Away
39.5% (281)
49.3% (864)
By Period
McDavid
Monahan
P1
42.3%
51.0%
P2
37.3%
51.8%
P3
43.4%
50.9%
OT
50.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
36.8%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
41.2%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2016 | 3 | 10:57 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 2, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 2, 2016 | 2 | 16:55 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 2, 2016 | 2 | 08:31 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 2, 2016 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 2, 2016 | 1 | 14:51 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 2, 2016 | 1 | 00:15 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 2, 2016 | 1 | 00:06 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 2, 2016 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 31, 2015 | 3 | 00:48 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 31, 2015 | 2 | 00:55 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 31, 2015 | 1 | 17:27 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 31, 2015 | 1 | 15:12 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 3 | 14:04 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 3 | 13:08 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 3 | 11:11 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 2 | 06:02 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 1 | 16:10 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 1 | 14:01 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 1 | 08:06 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |