Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs Monahan 54.5% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 59.2%
Defensive zone
Monahan 50.7%
Neutral zone
Monahan 52.0%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 54.3%
54.3%
45.7%
McDavid
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
McDavid
Monahan
Last 6: McDavid 3-3 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
0
McDavid
Monahan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
3
McDavid
Monahan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
57.1% (871)
-5.5%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
53.1% (262)
-3.1%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
44.6% (139)
-8.2%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. McDavid is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (616).
McDavid shoots left. Monahan is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Home / Away
McDavid
Monahan
Home
51.8% (415)
55.3% (644)
Away
50.4% (450)
54.5% (628)
By Period
McDavid
Monahan
P1
47.5%
53.9%
P2
51.6%
55.3%
P3
55.5%
54.4%
OT
50.0%
76.5%
Final 5 min
50.5%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 19:00 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 16:55 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 13:46 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 11:34 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 13:36 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 13:28 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |