Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.7% vs 53.1%). Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). McDavid wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 53.4% vs Monahan 52.8% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 50.8%
Defensive zone
McDavid 61.6%
Neutral zone
McDavid 52.0%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 54.0%
54.0%
46.0%
McDavid
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
McDavid
Monahan
Last 7: McDavid 3-4 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
4
McDavid
Monahan
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Monahan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Monahan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (1,002)
51.5% (641)
+2.8%
Power Play
44.8% (29)
62.8% (129)
-18.0%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (15)
33.3% (9)
+0.0%
On power play, Monahan has a +18.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. McDavid is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (679).
McDavid shoots left. Monahan is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (491).
Home / Away
McDavid
Monahan
Home
53.6% (507)
53.9% (362)
Away
53.8% (539)
52.5% (417)
By Period
McDavid
Monahan
P1
52.6%
48.0%
P2
54.1%
57.0%
P3
54.9%
54.1%
OT
44.4%
100.0%
Final 5 min
52.2%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 14:59 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 08:44 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 05:56 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 03:32 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 2 | 15:12 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 15:21 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 08:03 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |