Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on neutral-zone draws (63% H2H, 35 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Monahan 51.3% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 61-42 in 103 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 77.5%
Defensive zone
McDavid 75.6%
Neutral zone
McDavid 77.5%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 77.0%
77.0%
23.0%
McDavid
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
42
-
61
(103 meetings)
42
61
McDavid
Monahan
Last 10: McDavid 3-7 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
20
22
McDavid
Monahan
42 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
9
17
McDavid
Monahan
26 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
13
22
McDavid
Monahan
35 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
51.1% (11,356)
-3.4%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
53.7% (2,580)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
46.0% (766)
-2.6%
On even strength, Monahan has a +3.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,903).
McDavid shoots left. Monahan is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (9,301).
Home / Away
McDavid
Monahan
Home
49.3% (4,570)
52.4% (7,358)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
50.2% (7,344)
By Period
McDavid
Monahan
P1
46.5%
50.9%
P2
48.7%
51.7%
P3
48.3%
51.0%
OT
40.9%
53.5%
Final 5 min
50.1%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:50 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 00:36 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 00:58 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 02:03 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 14:36 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 10:29 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 04:49 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 16:38 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 19:00 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 16:55 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 13:46 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 11:34 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 13:36 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 13:28 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 00:30 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 14:59 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 08:44 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 05:56 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |