Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Monahan 52.8% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 75.4%
Defensive zone
McDavid 74.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 74.7%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 74.8%
74.8%
25.2%
McDavid
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
4
(4 meetings)
0
4
McDavid
Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
McDavid
Monahan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
McDavid
Monahan
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
2
McDavid
Monahan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
53.2% (823)
-5.7%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
55.3% (159)
-6.7%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
48.4% (95)
-1.9%
On power play, Monahan has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Monahan is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (676).
Home / Away
McDavid
Monahan
Home
50.2% (400)
54.6% (529)
Away
44.7% (365)
51.6% (548)
By Period
McDavid
Monahan
P1
47.5%
49.0%
P2
48.6%
55.4%
P3
46.7%
53.6%
OT
33.3%
61.9%
Final 5 min
51.3%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:50 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 00:36 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 00:58 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 02:03 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |