Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Monahan 52.4% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 59.5%
Defensive zone
Monahan 52.6%
Neutral zone
Monahan 56.3%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 52.4%
47.6%
52.4%
McDavid
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
McDavid
Monahan
Last 6: McDavid 3-3 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
McDavid
Monahan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Monahan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Monahan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
52.4% (853)
-4.7%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
58.6% (174)
-6.7%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
46.5% (144)
-24.3%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +24.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. McDavid is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (494).
McDavid shoots left. Monahan is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (782).
Home / Away
McDavid
Monahan
Home
47.3% (387)
53.4% (624)
Away
48.1% (389)
51.7% (547)
By Period
McDavid
Monahan
P1
47.6%
53.7%
P2
50.0%
52.4%
P3
45.0%
51.6%
Final 5 min
46.8%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 14:36 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 10:29 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 04:49 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 16:38 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |