Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). McDavid wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.0% vs Monahan 51.0% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 60.0%
Defensive zone
McDavid 77.9%
Neutral zone
McDavid 63.6%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 64.8%
64.8%
35.2%
McDavid
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
McDavid
Monahan
Last 9: McDavid 3-6 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
2
McDavid
Monahan
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
2
McDavid
Monahan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
2
McDavid
Monahan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (862)
50.8% (723)
-3.9%
Power Play
42.1% (38)
53.3% (152)
-11.2%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (18)
46.2% (13)
-1.8%
On power play, Monahan has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. McDavid is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (588).
McDavid shoots left. Monahan is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Home / Away
McDavid
Monahan
Home
47.9% (478)
52.5% (421)
Away
45.2% (440)
49.9% (467)
By Period
McDavid
Monahan
P1
45.9%
51.4%
P2
47.7%
52.3%
P3
46.6%
50.2%
OT
33.3%
35.7%
Final 5 min
47.2%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
46.6%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2019 | 3 | 06:19 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 19, 2019 | 2 | 11:59 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 19, 2019 | 2 | 02:11 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 19, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 19, 2019 | 1 | 08:49 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 19, 2019 | 1 | 00:12 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 9, 2018 | 2 | 03:31 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 9, 2018 | 2 | 00:42 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 9, 2018 | 1 | 01:54 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |