Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +13.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 53.4% vs Thompson 41.2% (+13.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 56.0%
Defensive zone
Thompson 57.0%
Neutral zone
Thompson 55.3%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 51.6%
48.4%
51.6%
McDavid
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
McDavid
Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
McDavid
Thompson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Thompson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (1,002)
40.6% (801)
+13.7%
Power Play
44.8% (29)
44.7% (103)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (15)
31.0% (71)
+2.3%
On even strength, McDavid has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. McDavid is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (367).
McDavid shoots left. Thompson is 40.1% vs left-shot opponents (724).
Home / Away
McDavid
Thompson
Home
53.6% (507)
43.2% (507)
Away
53.8% (539)
37.2% (468)
By Period
McDavid
Thompson
P1
52.6%
37.7%
P2
54.1%
43.4%
P3
54.9%
39.5%
OT
44.4%
27.3%
Final 5 min
52.2%
39.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
40.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2022 | 2 | 01:49 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 12, 2021 | 2 | 15:44 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 12, 2021 | 2 | 06:57 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |