Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs Thompson 44.0% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 58.6%
Defensive zone
Thompson 65.8%
Neutral zone
Thompson 61.1%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 61.3%
38.7%
61.3%
McDavid
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
McDavid
Thompson
Last 9: McDavid 3-6 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Thompson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
2
McDavid
Thompson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
3
McDavid
Thompson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
44.6% (709)
+7.0%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
41.5% (53)
+8.5%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
35.1% (97)
+1.3%
On power play, McDavid has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. McDavid is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (249).
McDavid shoots left. Thompson is 39.9% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
McDavid
Thompson
Home
51.8% (415)
45.5% (426)
Away
50.4% (450)
41.1% (433)
By Period
McDavid
Thompson
P1
47.5%
48.5%
P2
51.6%
43.8%
P3
55.5%
38.1%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
37.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
43.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 05:17 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 12:08 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 03:59 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 00:31 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 19:17 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 14:36 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 12:31 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 01:07 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 00:54 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |