Connor McDavid vs Tage Thompson
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Thompson 42.8% (+5.1%)
H2H factor
Thompson leads 16-12 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Thompson 68.1%
Defensive zone
Thompson 62.0%
Neutral zone
Thompson 63.9%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 64.9%
35.1%
64.9%
McDavid
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
16
(28 meetings)
12
16
McDavid
Thompson
Last 10: McDavid 2-8 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
6
3
McDavid
Thompson
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
2
3
McDavid
Thompson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
4
10
McDavid
Thompson
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
42.9% (3,521)
+4.8%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
46.8% (372)
+5.2%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
33.6% (265)
+9.8%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. McDavid is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,105).
McDavid shoots left. Thompson is 40.9% vs left-shot opponents (3,011).
Home / Away
McDavid
Thompson
Home
49.3% (4,570)
44.9% (2,115)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
40.3% (2,043)
By Period
McDavid
Thompson
P1
46.5%
44.5%
P2
48.7%
43.6%
P3
48.3%
40.2%
OT
40.9%
36.4%
Final 5 min
50.1%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 04:01 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:10 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 03:46 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 09:43 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 15:18 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 05:17 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 12:08 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 03:59 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 00:31 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 19:17 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 14:36 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 12:31 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 01:07 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 00:54 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 1 | 15:17 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 15:49 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |