Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Thompson 43.8% (+8.8%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 85.2%
Defensive zone
McDavid 83.6%
Neutral zone
McDavid 66.9%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 74.9%
74.9%
25.1%
McDavid
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
McDavid
Thompson
Last 10: McDavid 7-3 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
0
McDavid
Thompson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Thompson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
2
4
McDavid
Thompson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
43.3% (735)
+8.2%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
50.0% (26)
+13.9%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
36.5% (52)
+14.7%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +14.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. McDavid is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (357).
McDavid shoots left. Thompson is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Home / Away
McDavid
Thompson
Home
50.7% (513)
44.5% (407)
Away
53.2% (498)
41.6% (406)
By Period
McDavid
Thompson
P1
52.3%
44.4%
P2
51.6%
44.8%
P3
51.7%
40.2%
OT
100.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
56.5%
38.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 1 | 15:17 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 15:49 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 18:32 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 05:15 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 12:10 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 09:23 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |