Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Thompson 45.3% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 60.5%
Defensive zone
Thompson 62.0%
Neutral zone
Thompson 62.7%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 61.7%
38.3%
61.7%
McDavid
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
McDavid
Thompson
Last 5: McDavid 1-4 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Thompson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
McDavid
Thompson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
2
McDavid
Thompson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
44.9% (642)
+2.6%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
47.9% (94)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
33.3% (33)
+13.2%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. McDavid is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (211).
McDavid shoots left. Thompson is 42.1% vs left-shot opponents (549).
Home / Away
McDavid
Thompson
Home
50.2% (400)
46.0% (391)
Away
44.7% (365)
43.4% (378)
By Period
McDavid
Thompson
P1
47.5%
48.1%
P2
48.6%
44.9%
P3
46.7%
41.2%
OT
33.3%
42.9%
Final 5 min
51.3%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 04:01 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:10 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 03:46 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 09:43 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 15:18 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |