Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +13.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on neutral-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). McDavid wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 42.2% vs Seguin 54.5% (-13.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 75.9%
Defensive zone
McDavid 81.4%
Neutral zone
McDavid 83.7%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 83.7%
83.7%
16.3%
McDavid
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
McDavid
Seguin
Last 7: McDavid 1-6 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
1
6
McDavid
Seguin
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
41.4% (855)
55.1% (1,036)
-13.7%
Power Play
47.8% (23)
56.9% (174)
-9.1%
Penalty Kill
35.5% (31)
52.2% (230)
-16.7%
On penalty kill, Seguin has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. McDavid is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (335).
McDavid shoots left. Seguin is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (948).
Home / Away
McDavid
Seguin
Home
42.8% (451)
58.9% (703)
Away
40.0% (458)
51.0% (737)
By Period
McDavid
Seguin
P1
38.0%
54.5%
P2
44.9%
53.7%
P3
41.7%
57.0%
OT
20.0%
45.8%
Final 5 min
47.9%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
41.4%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2017 | 3 | 10:25 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 3 | 00:11 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 2 | 12:03 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 2 | 00:07 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |