Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Seguin 52.5% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 67.2%
Defensive zone
Seguin 62.9%
Neutral zone
McDavid 53.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 60.2%
60.2%
39.8%
McDavid
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
McDavid
Seguin
Last 6: McDavid 3-3 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Seguin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
1
2
McDavid
Seguin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
53.2% (201)
-5.7%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
60.0% (25)
-11.4%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
44.4% (9)
+2.1%
On power play, Seguin has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. McDavid is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (211).
McDavid shoots left. Seguin is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (187).
Home / Away
McDavid
Seguin
Home
50.2% (400)
56.3% (126)
Away
44.7% (365)
50.5% (109)
By Period
McDavid
Seguin
P1
47.5%
44.3%
P2
48.6%
52.1%
P3
46.7%
62.5%
OT
33.3%
80.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2025 | 1 | 15:24 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 25, 2025 | 1 | 13:01 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 25, 2025 | 1 | 03:48 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 12:54 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 03:04 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 03:40 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |